AFL Dream Team Strategies for 2010

Backline war horses:

The saying there are many ways to skin a cat has never been more relevant than when you sit down on day one looking at your blank team ready to embark on a brand new AFL Dream Team Season. But the one theory I will discus relates to almost all fantasy owners most despised position. Yes, the band-aid back line. I'm sure I am not the only one who as been struck down late in the season and had to limp home with at least one big fat zero in there backs. So what balance of risky injury returning players, playing rookies (first yr players) and Guns should you go with. My thoughts are...


-The backline is the position that makes the least money in most fantasy teams (Rucks aside)

-There are generally plenty of gun draft picks/cash cows sprinkled through the forwards and mids especially, so money can be easily made there.

-The backline is also the position that in the past has lent itself to a lot of injuries.

The idea is to look for at least 4 preferably 5 backs that have played close to every game in the past 2 seasons and any games they did miss were not injurys that are likely to reoccur. i.e. Hamstring, groin. Players Like Enright, Hargraves and Goddard spring to mind. No real upside, rather boring and obvious even, but a 22 game player that will net you more than a good points return is worth his weight in gold. Just like each trade.

Yes this will chew some dollar, but that's ok because we can gamble a little more in our midfield with one or 2 playing rookies and maybe another 2 players that are on the verge of a breakout season. Knowing that between the 2 rookies on the field and the 2 on your bench you will end up with 2 round one starters and if you have done your research at least one reserve.

Yes, choosing rookie backs can pay off for your AFL Dream Team. Broughton from 09 is a prime example. That said of course you can always jump on after 2 games if they are just too good to pass up. The other bonus with having extra rookies in your mids as opposed to other positions, is when it comes to selling off your cash cows. There is always a plethora of midfield rookies that have jumped out of the blocks with 2 big scores first up to choose from. Where you can have nailed it with a rookie back and are ready to cash in, only to find the there is not a single decent playing first year back to downgrade to.

In the end the less trades you have to waste the better. Picking a side where you can set and forget as many backs as possible might just be the key to get you a league win or who knows maybe even a crack at the a car.

Top 5 Hot Buys of the Week

1. Jimmy Bartel - Price $417,100. If you have the Cash now is the time to move. as far as Bartel standards go he has hit rock bottom, after his 115 on the weekend his price is sure to sky rocket.

2. Nick Riewoldt - Price $319,800. Jump on Board! Nick scored 108 on the weekend his best score of the year and his first 100 since round 5. Looks like he is getting on top of his injury problems

3. Johnathan Brown - Price $366,99. If for some strange reason you don't have Browny last chance to get him super cheap as he is sitting on 2 130+ scores and price is ready to hit the 400k mark. grab him now!

4. Brendon Goddard - Price $317,900. Goddard is back! after a slow but steady start to the season he looks like he has turned the corner after a massive 116 on the weekend. Goddard averaged 97 2 seasons ago and 80 last year(again 90 plus if you take away the game that ended his season.

5. Adam McPhee - Price $284,300. McPhee has had a poor start to the season with his price dropping 104k, not once scoring over 85 Dream Team points in his 8 outings. This all changed on the weekend and it was the McPhee of old easily hitting the century with 108. No coincidence at all that this also marked the return of Lucas shifting McPhee back to his more familiar role on the Half Back line.

DREAM TEAM CASH COWS

Backs

EDWARDS, Jake
$119,700 ($+36,200)

74 last week in his fourth match.

HOULIHAN, Tim
$83,500 $0 ($+0)

74 from 1 game. Great First game. One to watch


WILKES, Beau
$72,600 ($+0) 53 from 1 game

At his price if he can hold his spot he could be a decent option.


Centres

WELLINGHAM, Sharrod
$130,800 ($+58,200) Avg. 73

If you thought he was to bigger risk he is looker a whole lot safer after his 82 on the weekend. Looks a sure thing to hold his spot at least for the next few weeks.

MORTON, Jarryd
$83,500

Nice Start to his career with 16 disposals and 57 points. A very tough team to hold a position in so take at your own risk.

Forwards

KENNEDY, Josh P.
$83,500

Nice start with 58 but faces the same problem as Morton with the Hawthorn's depth. In saying that he's given himself every Chance to with an impressive debut.


VALENTI, Shane
$72,600 Avg 58.5 from 2 games (ALSO A CENTRE)

The beauty of Valenti is his versatility in being listed as a Forward as well as a centre. With a price of $72k and a steady start to his career you would think that he would get a good chance with Melbourne desperately needing to develop young talent. Wait for him to be named this week then jump on him.

BEST BUYS

Backs

DRUMMOND, Josh $316,600 $-17,900 ($-58,500)
Ball magnet will finish the year as one of the top 3-4 averaging backs. He is dirt cheap and a must have at his price.

IBBOTSON, Garrick $257,300 +$24,800 ($+160,900)
Still very cheap when you consider he has averaged 87 over the past 4 matches and does not look to be stopping. Just in case you don't already have him act now!

Centres

THOMPSON, Scott $404,800 +$10,000 ($-27,900)
Down a little from his starting price and with his massive 153 on the weekend will not be around the $400k mark for long. He gets a lot of ball, takes marks and can kick a goal. Great Dream Teamer.

VAN BERLO, Nathan $348,000 +$24,900 ($+18,300)
Had a sound start to the season but has averaged close to 100 over his past 4 matches and is value.

CASSISI, Domenic $372,300 $-8,600 ($-8,100) Avg 89.5
Only way is up for Cassisi. He doesn't have to many bad games and as undervalue due to Ports poor start. Look for him to start hitting regular 100's.
BOYD, Matthew $371,500 $-7,900 ($-48,400) Avg 90
Down 48k due to a couple of poor games but still averaging 90 is a good option. Also never gets the tag.

CARRAZZO, Andrew $414,400 $1,300 ($-20,500)
Super consistent with scores of 93, 90, 104, 103, 94, 95, 140, 71, 103 Can't go wrong with Carrazzo. Absolute AFL Dream Team gun!

Forwards

MEDHURST, Paul $339,700 $-18,100 ($+99,000) Avg. 92.56
Pies are hot and Medhurst is part of the reason why. He has flown under the radar to average 92.5 and with a price tag of 339,700 looks a very tempting.

THOMAS, Dale $293,500 +$20,500 ($-36,000) Avg.74.44
After a public plea from Mick to lift Thomas has done just that with last 2 scores 97 & 95 he looks like he has taken his game to the next level where and as a 293k he is a steal.

JOHNSON, Brad $347,800 +$17,300 ($-87,500)
A lot have been holding off putting Johnson into their Dream Team due to the injury cloud that has hung over his head. But looking at the way he moved on the weekend he may have shaken his niggles and at 87k under his starting price it is now time to make your move.

AFL Dream Team Tip of the week

Time to start foccusing on the cream of the crop at this stage and if you are not upgrading you should be picking up cheap rookies. Try to avoid mid range players as they only mean you will need to use a further upgrade by seasons end to turn them into a gun. And most likely you will make little money out of them, bar a few exceptions. Most of the guys you select in your Dream team from now on should be selected with the view of having them in your team at round 22. So stock up on cash by down grading your Cash Cows and aim high with your guns. You don't want to settle for second best when upgrading as you only get 20 trades so use them wisely.

Peaking Cash Cows

If you are lucky enough to be in a position to be able to down grade this week. And not still reeling over the massive backline dilemma, here are a a list of a few guys that are ready to be offloaded. It is time to bring in the big guns and these guys are on the chopping block.

Forwards

Josh Hill: If you still have him has has to go has been lucky to keep his spot for this long and will struggle to make the final cut this week. Hill has definitely peaked and is ripe for a trade.

Bernie Vince: Vince has maxed out for the time being and with the huge amount of under priced forwards on the market would be a perfect upgrade option.

Cyril Rioli: Not quite ready but close enough when you consider that and of the value forward options will most likely increase equally in dollar value as Rioli if not more over the next 5 weeks. Rioli has been a great Cow for most Dream Teamers but his time is just about up.

Possible pick ups B Johnson, S Johnson, J Brown, M Richardson, Chapman. All great value and will not be at that price for long.

Centres

Cale Morton: He is ready to go, with 3 low scores in a row now and little signs of change in the near future. Would take quite a few weeks for him to turn it around cash wise and by then the bird has flown.

Bachar Houli: Like Rioli he is one you could hold for a few more weeks as he is still in great form and only getting better. Should max out at just over 300k though and with gun mids of such importance it could be time to say bye bye bachar.

If you are looking to downgrade Browne from Carlton is the obvious choice. If an upgrade is on your menu players like Joel Corey, Sam Mitchell, Heath Scotland or Anthony Carrazzo could be good options.

Backs

Ellis: Started the season great but his form has tapered off dramatically. his price has peaked and is on the decline. with his limited game time of an avg of %70 for the season)not looking like changing to soon Ellis (if by some miracle you don't have bigger probs in your backs) has had his time and could be a viable upgrade player.

Phieffer: Looks like he has blown his chance for the moment and if your Cash Cows in other positions are not flourishing might be worth a down grade for a cheeky 100k. Phieffer looks as though he will find it tough to break in to the blues line up especially with Thornton and Hartlett to return.

As far as backs go cheap options are few and far between with Garrick Ibbotson (Freo) looking like the only reliable option atm. Those with some cash to spend would look no further than the likes of Milburn (might wait a week though due to injury cloud) P. Burgoyne seams to be hitting form after confidence boosting Performance for the Dream Team. Josh Drummond who is a little pricey but will rack up the points. maybe give him a look for a week also, and Brendon Goddard who had made a steady start after his knee reco. and should only improve.